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Transfer Truth: The Truth on Suarez to Arsenal Developments

Posted on Jul 25th, 2013 by Jim Walker

Unless you've been busy exploring what sand feels like on your neck you would have heard Arsenal's crazy use of £1 in their latest bid for Luis Suarez. Why exactly did The Gunners add a shiny coin on the end of their £40m high pile of notes?

Suarez: Transfer Truth: 60%
There are a lot of confusing and conflicting reports flying around as to why Arsenal made the bid they did. The truth is that only a very small number of people are privy to the confidential details of a players contract so what you are about to read is common, or assumed wisdom mixed with non-contractual fact. We've attempted to present to you, the closest we can get to the truth without having the contract at hand.

Common Wisdom
Liverpool have previously confirmed that Arsenal did make an initial bid for Suarez. Liverpool Managing Director Ian Ayre recently confirmed this when speaking to Bloomberg:

We had an offer which is fairly public from Arsenal. We said no to that offer, and as far as we’re concerned he turns up for training when he’s due back.

This much we know to be true, the stories surrounding a second and third bid have also been confirmed by by Brenadan Rodgers in an interview on Sky Sports:

There was an offer a few weeks ago of £35m, and two weeks later it is now £40m and one pound - I don't think it's anywhere near the value of what he is worth.

There was also the now infamous tweet from Liverpool owner John W Henry in response to Arsenal's seemingly crazy bid:

This is a direct response to the Arsenal bid, which according to The Telegraph did actually happen in a phone call between Ian Ayre and Ivan Gazidis in the last 24 hours.

Why £40m+£1?
The reasoning behind this is highly conflicted but based on our research the truth of the matter is that Suarez has a rather unusual clause in his contract which permits him the option to talk to any club surpassing the £40m mark with a bid. However we have not found anything that says Liverpool have to accept the bid, which leaves the whole thing in a very strange situation.

We could end up with a scenario where by Arsenal and Suarez agree terms, but those terms mean nothing because Liverpool refuse the bid. The bottom line is that if this scenario unfolded it would be tantamount to contractually permitted tapping up, and if Suarez had agreed a deal with Arsenal his previous comments have shown that he would be determined to push that deal through.

This would mean that all hell would break loose and that in the end, Liverpool could be cornered in to selling Suarez for less than the £50m valuation they recently placed on him. So perhaps the question John W Henry should be tweeting is what the hell were we smoking when we agreed to that clause?

Our Truth-o-meter
Arsenal's most recent bid appears to underline a fierce determination to bring Suarez to The Emirates even if it must be achieved by unscrupulous means. This is a level of seriousness we had not previously assumed on this rumour and it includes not only Suarez's previous pandering for champions League football but also hard facts about bids being made. We're left with no choice but to increase the truth rating on this rumour all the way up to a whopping 60% (from 25% previously).

The rumour may well be true, and we already know bid and have good information on the contractual situation but this still doesn't mean the move to Arsenal, or anywhere for that matter, will go ahead. Liverpool could dig their heels in or Arsenal may not be able offer the kind of terms Suarez wants so we're increasing the chances of a move to Arsenal by a lesser amount, up to 30%.

Likeliness of Signing: 30%
Fit at Club: 85%

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