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Transfer Truth: The Truth on Doria to Chelsea

Posted on Jul 29th, 2013 by Amrit Nagi

Chelsea have joined a long list of clubs reported to be interested in Brazil U20 defender Doria and with a reasonable looking release clause confirmed by his club Botafogo surely it's a matter of who to rather than if he moves.

Doria: Transfer Truth: 55%
There is little solid information linking the 18 year old directly to Chelsea but the idea that he will not be spending next season at his current club is pretty solid and the fact that the player is so highly rated by so many quarters makes it a reasonable assumption that Chelsea could be one of the clubs in the hunt, though work permit issues might make it a tricky acquisition.

Botafogo president Mauricio Assumpcao has recently stated his clubs position in very clear terms in an interview reported on Soccer Lens:

Right now I can’t guarantee that Doria will stay. Negotiations will depend on whether clubs pay his buy-out fee.

That release clause is widely believed to be £11m, not a staggering ask in the current market. Assumpcao went on to say:

He, his agent and family are considering their options, but nothing is set in stone.

Form this we can take the release clause to be true and accept that certain clubs may have already made enquiries so it's only a matter of time before someone stumps up the asking price and sets off a bidding war for his services.

Are Chelsea Interested?
Many sources have speculated that Chelsea are interested with some even speculating that they'd already made a bid. We could find nothing solid to back this up other than the assumption that Barcelona's interest in David Luiz might mean he leaves Chelsea and the idea that John Terry is no longer guaranteed a first team place would potentially make the signing of a young understudy a sensible move but this does involve a lot of ifs and buts.

The big issue for Chelsea would be that without the strong possibility of a certain number of first team appearances being made, and only one Brazil cap under his belt he is likely to struggle to get a work permit. In order to stand any chance of receiving one from the home office Chelsea would need to prove that he is a special talent and "able to contribute significantly to the development of the game at the top level in the UK." This might not be as impossible as it sounds but it would certainly make Chelsea one of the more difficult options the player could chose.

Our Truth-o-meter
With Botafogo having confirmed there is a relatively reasonable release clause in place and that numerous clubs have shown interest we think there is a very good chance that Doria will be plying his trade somewhere in Europe next season so we're kicking this one off with a 55% transfer truth rating.

With little in the way of a recent link to Chelsea. With so many top clubs reported to be after him, and the certain challenges that will lie ahead with attaining a work permit for the player in England the possibility of a move to Chelsea in specific remains fairly low, but with the Mourinho charm trump card up their sleeve Chelsea stand a better chance than they otherwise might, so we're giving them a 20% probability of snagging Doria.

Likeliness of Signing: 20%
Fit at Club: 70%

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