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Transfer Truth: On the Latest Fabregas to Manchester United News

Posted on Jul 28th, 2013 by Araz Heydariyehzadeh

Manchester United's determination to bring Fabregas to Old Trafford looked like it had a chance earlier last week, with multiple sources reporting Fabregas was seriously considering the move but the story has now take another twist.

Fabregas: Transfer Truth: 40%
With Barcelona having replaced their manager, and United making multiple confirmed bids for Fabregas it seemed for a while that a high enough bid might prise him away from Barcelona or there might be hope for Moyes that the new Barca manager wouldn't be quite as fond of the midfielder as his predecessors.

Sadly for United supporters still awaiting on one of the big name signings Moyes promised a few weeks ago, the tide has turned against the transfer. It turns out everyone at Barcelona, including the new manager, loves Fabregas.

Whilst it is absolutely true that United have made bids allowing us to increase our truth rating on this one up to 40% last week when Moyes confirmed Ed Woodward was negotiating with Barcelona, the latest comments made by Barcelona manager Gerardo Martino have gone a long way to extinguishing the flames on this one. When speaking to Sky Sports Martino said:

I'm not going to get into the economic interests but, if the club rejected it twice, I add a third one right now. He will be staying here.

As if that wasn't bad enough the Barcelona brass then showed that they are very much towing the same line as their new manager when Vice-president Josep Maria Bartomeu said:

It's logical that we've had offers for Fabregas because he is a quality player but he is not for sale. We are proud to have him here. It doesn't matter what the offer from United is, we are counting on him. It is normal that many clubs are interested in our player Cesc. That is a source of pride for us, but we'll reject all bids.

Normally we might be tempted not to take this on face value and speculate that this was merely a generic attempt at maximising the money they can get for their player but in this case we take it as given that Barcelona have zero intention of selling Fabregas and with the player previously having stated that he will be loyal to the Spanish side for as long as they want him, that may very well be that.

Any Hope Left?
All hope isn't completely lost though, if United up their bid from a fairly modest £35m (which is only about £5m more than Barcelona paid for him) up to say £50m plus add ons then they may seriously test Barcelona's resolve. As it stands bids around the level of what was initially paid for the player have always been very unlikely to be fruitful so we shouldn't be at all surprised that they have been so confidently knocked back.

The only question is whether or not United have the resolve to pay that kind of money for a single player, and past history suggests strongly that the answer to that question is a no.

Moyes most recent comments also suggest that United might just be starting to cool their interests, the BBC have reported Moyes saying:

I couldn't tell you if there will be another bid (for Fabregas(. I never at any time said I knew we would get him. We will take stock and consider what we are going to do next.

The comment goes in to praise how string United's current crop is. Now this must be worrying to United supporters. It appears to be laying the foundations of a contingency plan aimed to soften the blow if United fail to deliver on the big name signings they promised fans last month. It could also be mind games intended to let Barcelona know they will not be held to ransom, but we doubt that.

Whilst we know as a matter of fact that United have now made 2 bids and can therefore put a fairly high truth rating of 40% on the transfer rumours. This is pegged back by the fact that whilst the rumours are true the likeliness of the transfer actually completing remains very low. For that reason, and based on the most recent comments from the Barcelona manager, vice president and Fabregas himself, we are lowering the chances of Fabregas actually signing for Manchester United from 40% down to 25%.

Likeliness of Signing: 25%
Fit at Club: 90%

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