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Transfer Truth: Latest Developments on Fabregas to Manchester United

Posted on Jul 23rd, 2013 by Araz Heydariyehzadeh

A few days ago we made Fabregas' move to Manchester United our rumour of the day, well the whole thing is far more than just a rumour now with official bids being made, rejected and remade. Will Moyes finally get his man?

Fabregas: Transfer Truth: 40%
When we initially reported this story we were very skeptical that any sort of bid had been made or that Fabregas would even entertain the idea of moving away from his beloved Barcelona. Recent developments have pushed this out of the fictitious category as the deal starts to looks increasingly likely but still a long shot.

The First Bid - Confirmed
United have confirmed that a week ago they submitted a bid for Fabregas, which was promptly rejected by Barcelona, we know this to be fact, but any stories claiming to know the amount that was bid are stretching themselves a bit.

There are also additional quotes doing the rounds which specify that the Barcelona president had angrily rejected the bid, but it's important to note that the origins of this quote are only specified as the infamous "a club source" so there's a very good chance that it could be entirely made up.

The Second Bid - Confirmed
We also know that United ave now made a second, improved bid for Fabregas as confirmed by David Moyes at a news conference in Japan:

As I understand it, Ed had a response (to the first bid). We have made a second offer, but Ed is dealing with it rather than me.

Again anyone implying they know the specific amounts involved is likely being creative with their knowledge. What's perhaps more curious than United's forthright honesty is the lack of an official statement from Barcelona, which makes us think they might be having a think about it.

Moyes was also asked whether or not he would draw the line under the Fabregas transfer after this second bid to which he said:

I think a point does come but I think when you are interested in good players you want to give it every opportunity to materialise. And I'll do that. At this moment I can only tell you that Ed Woodward is working hard to make the deals happen and we're hoping some of them will fall into place shortly.

This statement is almost as revealing as the first. To us this appears to be saying that United are far more determined to being Fabregas to Old Trafford than Moyes is letting on. The language of his comment betrays a disguised desperation, though of course this is down to interpretation.

Changing Tides
Fabregas has repeatedly stated in the past that Arsenal and Barcelona are the only clubs he could play for but those comments are old now. The passage of time and the changing tide may have altered his opinions, though we do doubt that.

The main uncertainty is that with the Barcelona manager leaving his post we could end up in a situation where their new boss decides he wants to bring in other players, or doesn't see Fabregas as his kind of player. Though again how anyone could see Fabregas as the wrong kind of player is very much beyond us. The only thing that could happen is that Barcelona get a very large bid and decide to sell before their new manager can run in screaming "nooooo" as the wheels on flight Fabregas lift from the tarmac in Barcelona.

In reality though the much more likely scenario is that any departure for Fabregas will be delayed until a new manager arrives rather than the rudderless Barcelona ship suddenly meaning no manager automatically also means their previous resolve to keep Fab has also suddenly departed.

Our Truth-o-meter
Two United bids have now been confirmed, so we have little choice but to lift our truth rating on this transfer up to 40%, purely on the basis that there is total and confirmed truth of two transfer offers having been made. We also believe United are far more determined to land the Spaniard than they are letting on, maybe even enough to offer the kind of money that would allow them to grapple the player from Barcelona's grasp, but that really could be silly money, maybe £40m+.

Of course with United making all the bids, they have to be considered as front runners but given Arsenal's right of first refusal on the transfer and Fabregas' reciprocated love for The Gunners, we would still only give United a 40% chance of signing the player were he to leave.

Likeliness of Signing: 40%
Fit at Club: 90%

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